The heft and feel of a well-worn handle,
The sight of shavings that curl from a blade;
The logs in the wood pile, the sentiment of huge beams in an old-fashioned house;
The smell of fresh cut timber and the pungent fragrance of burning leaves;
The crackle of kindling and the hiss of burning logs.
Abundant to all the needs of man, how poor the world would be
Without wood.

Everard Hinrichs, quoted by Eric Sloane in A Reverence for Wood


Monday, July 18, 2011

Bouncing along the bottom in housing

Who to believe? One expert says the housing sector is about to turn around...

Beginning of the end of the entire crisis?

...because foreclosure rates, and new default filings are both on the decline.

The National Association of Home Builders seems to agree with this outlook...the graph below shows that they think the upturn is right on the brink (the red line denotes the current month).

So the NAHB is forecasting that the first story is correct. Let's hope so...but the NAHB has been forecasting (wishing?) for that upturn for a couple of years now.

Meanwhile, at least one expert says that the worst is still ahead...

Plunging home prices to spark 2012 recession

...because housing prices will fall another 20%, causing the number of folks that are "underwater" in their mortgages to rise from 23% to 40% of American homeowners.

While the first scenario is not exactly a reason to celebrate, the second scenario is terrible to contemplate. 40% of Americans owing more on their house than the house is worth?

What can be done? With the debt and credit crisis our country faces, is it even feasible to forecast an upturn for your housing-related business?

One man thinks he has the answer. He calls it "The Simple Solution." I'll be sharing it with you over the course of several upcoming posts. Stay tuned.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The forecast seems overly optomistic. I think the housing recovery is linked to the current debt crisis and budget stalemate. It will be a long, hard slog as Donald Rumsfeld would say.