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Friday, October 23, 2015

Back to the Fur for the Future

Here's a great video from 1950 forwarded by Aaron E. out in Oregon, which features, among other great stories, parachuting beavers.

I bet Dylan would love to get a job like this.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Humans Need Not Apply

In the last post, we discussed steps that could be taken to "grow" the forest products industry in the Northeastern United States. A group of Northeastern government officials had invited my ideas for growing the industry. One might ask..."why?"

Are the politicians of the region suddenly feeling an urge to increase the profits of an industry that has been politically incorrect for decades in the region? Are they worried that the abundant forest resources of the region are going largely under-utilized? Are they worried that too many cabinets, flooring and furniture pieces are being manufactured in distant locations?

Of course not. They need keep their jobs. And the forest products sector is one that once offered hundreds of thousands of jobs in the Northeast...but that number is dropping precipitously. For instance, wood industry employment in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont decreased by one third in the decade from 2003 to 2013. The good news is that the number has rebounded by 10% since the dog days of early 2010.

Wood-Products Manufacturing Jobs in Northern New England
Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States Department of Labor.

But the longer trend is hard to ignore. Even through the "boom" years of the housing market from 2003 to 2005, industry employment remained flat. And anyone who has visited industry shows over the past decade knows why. Technology is helping business owners replace humans to keep their costs under control.

In my advice to the government officials, I ignored the impacts of technology that were already underway, and focused on the other areas of costs which are being imposed largely by government policy. The hope is that by trimming their sails a little, governments could reduce the non-market costs imposed on businesses and enable them to invest a little more in their work forces.

But even under the best case scenario, those hopes for increased employment seem more like fairy dust with each passing year.

Back in the 1980's, my graduate research led me to programming an "expert system" that helped employees of a gypsum wallboard plant diagnose process problems in real time. The project required me to spend a summer on-site at the plant. On my first day, a local real estate lady showed me a couple of apartments, during which she asked me what I would be doing at the plant. As I gave her the simplest explanation, her immediate reaction, in a sweet but sincere Southern drawl, was "You're not going to take our jobs away, I hope?"

The question somewhat startled me, because I had never considered that possibility. I quickly assured her, that no, of course not, my system didn't replace any simply helped them do their job better.

For some reason, she didn't seem convinced. And I had a funny feeling in the pit of my stomach.